BREXIT: DIVORCE IN THE BRITISH SCENARIO

Chekalenko Lyudmyla

BREXIT: РОЗЛУЧЕННЯ ЗА БРИТАНСЬКИМ СЦЕНАРІЄМ

Людмила Чекаленко, ж. «Зовнішні справи», 2017, №9, с. 9-15.

SUMMARY

The article is devoted to the consideration of the first stages of Brexit; The problems that the UK has faced in this difficult journey; the ambiguous policy of the EU-27 and individual states of the Euro-space. Relying on a wide range of documentary sources, an attempt was made to predict further divorce moves in the British scenario.

Key words: Brexit, Great Britain (U.K.), EU-27, trade, finance, security, human rights, migration.

A year has passed since the announcement by the United Kingdom of the withdrawal from the EU. The reaction of European countries was differentiated according to their level of development, wealth and status in the European integration framework. At the same time, the positions differed in their level of engagement with the European process and responsibility for European integration as a whole. Europeans are gradually getting used to Brexit. An overview of the tangent sources on the subject adds some optimism: the debate on the subject, whether the WB in the European Union is needed, quickly went to a non-believer popularly-fashionable a year ago. The threatening myths about the consequences of divorce are gradually being overthrown: the EU is self-liquidating, and China and Russia will intensify, since with the departure of the UK with the EU other countries can reduce the sanction of the Russian Federation; weaken NATO troops in Europe, and so on. Some even predicted a catastrophe for the United States, which has always relied on WB in European affairs. It did not take into account the fact that the EU's weakness would have negative consequences and economic risks for all countries, including Russia and the PRC.

THE FIGHT FOR "HERITAGE". Unexpectedly for the majority, some of the 27 EU members rushed to "split" the British not yet formalized European integration legacy (still "living" neighbors). Some, focusing on the WB, have dramatically changed their position on participation in the various components of the EU, despite the threatening warning about the appropriate sanctions. And some have slowed down their further immersion in European integration processes.

Concerning the consequences of Brexit for the British market: clear estimates and forecasts are unlikely to be found even in British sources. At the same time, the "British" companies are struggling both Ireland and Luxembourg. This is a delicate piece, as a number of foreign firms have been concentrated in London and have access to the entire EU market. Poland also joined the pursuit of British affiliates. The rates are rising, because the medical sector and the banking sector are an attractive legacy for the Poles. Ireland seeks to attract bankers, software engineers and accountants, but faces the problem of lack of housing for visitors.

In the opinion of the overwhelming majority of European citizens, including the British themselves, the country chose not quite a good moment to make a fateful decision. Economic and political crises, complications and threatening conditions with illegal migration, terrorism, ongoing wars around and inside Europe - all this will not, in one way or another, alleviate the effects of divorce.

Analyzing the course of the British in the EU, recalling all the nuances of their advancement to the integration space, you come to the conclusion about the predictability of Brexit, as warned in due time by the President of the French Republic, General Charles de Gaulle. The current effects of British "reluctance", "inhibition", "special approach" of the 1960s-1970s lay on the surface of European WB-aligning politicians. The EEC executives went on a permanent deal, closed their eyes to possible dangerous consequences and threatening trends, because ... Britain (!). We recall the first applications for membership with the demands of significant changes in favor of Britain in the already formed European Economic Communities. Later, the tenders for one or another concession by the central organs of the EU. Finally, the position of incomplete dependence, incomplete responsibility and incomplete participation in key components of European integration, except, perhaps, only the role of the payer to the euro budget. We recall the position of the weak states that have made a lot of effort to delay the WB to the European community. What were they guiding in the 1960s? Fearing for the strengthening of France and Germany, they were prepared to make any compromises to accept WB to unite.

TRADE + HUMAN RIGHTS + BANKING SPHERE. The most sensitive areas of Brexit, according to WB's general belief, are trade, banking and the protection of the rights of EU citizens working and living in the WB. Trade should be managed in accordance with the principles of the WTO. Although one way or another, WB exports to Europe will face customs duties and other restrictions. British bankers should move from Europe to the new rules, and various transactions for clients from the Eurocontinent will become illegal. Some experts put forward the idea of the need for Brussels to create a network of underwater fiber optic cables, similar to those that support London business. Cables that carry high-speed Internet traffic are essential to maintaining a significant amount of electronic bidding.

Global banking giants such as Citigroup (Citigroup, Citi - American Multinational Banking and Finance Corporation with headquarters in New York), American Bank Morgan Stanley (JPMorgan Chase - JPYMorgan Chase - USA's largest asset bank holding company) [1 ], as well as HSBC (The BBC is an abbreviation of Hongkong & Shanghai Banking Corporation, a British international commercial bank with headquarters in London) [2], which is the largest market capitalization in Europe and one of the largest in world financial group Japan Sumitomo Mitsui Financ ial Group [3], Frankfurt was chosen to move. After Brexit, Frankfurt is preparing to move significant portions of its trading and investment banking assets from London and Deutsche Bank. It is anticipated that, in general, hundreds of traders and more than 20,000 client bank accounts will be moved. A well-known financial tycoon, Henry Sachs, also confirmed that he was transferring hundreds of bank jobs from London, expanding his offices in Frankfurt and Paris. The telecommunications giant Vodafon (Vodafone, France) announced the abolition of his office in London.

Great Britain has used its accession to Europe to attract international companies and missions dealing with aviation, medical and financial spheres. They pushed the development of WB's of industrial centers, marketing departments and sales offices, selling their products across Europe from Ireland to Greece, that is, in the entire geographic area of500 million people. The number of jobs transferred will increase by roughly 35,000, which means moving British finance professionals to new jobs in Dublin, Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt and Luxemburg. This process will actually lead to a loss of more than $ 24.8 billion from the UK revenue side. [4] Almost 57% of companies are conducting security audits in the event of emergencies involving Brexit, but only 11% have already begun implementing their plans.

Some steps by the British government, such as the successful completion of the negotiation process with Nissan's car manufacturing in the north of Brittany in Sunderland, reassured a number of Brexit supporters, as it became apparent that in certain cases, it could be agreed with specific WB employers on leaving the ground. Although Ford and BMW are not certain about the stability of the British stay "afloat." Interestingly, despite Brexit's warnings, the annual figures of the British economy clearly indicate its growth by almost 1.8 percent, while British banks continue to operate financially in the usual manner. British factories produced cars, medical equipment and aircraft components, most of which were destined for Europe. In March, Toyota also announced that it will remain in the WB and will invest an additional $ 297 million. to develop a plant in Derbyshire. Although the British are keen on the tongue, they say that all expenses are covered by debts, since the British pound fell by 17% compared with the dollar, increasing the cost of imported goods [5].

The British are striving to retain the right to painless transition to free trade through British borders until the agreement is settled; solution to the problem of gas dependence: WB expects gas prices to rise; solving the issue of new conditions for direct participation in Euratomi related to hazardous nuclear waste; participation of WB troops in joint EU military formations; sharing and access to classified information, etc. The Office of the UK Information Officer will strive to maintain close ties with the EU in the field of data protection, according to the Bureau's Strategic Paper for 2017-2021. Agricultural managers are busy with the new Green Brexit program, which is also linked to issues of hired seasonal workers outside of the issue of product sales, and this is the immigration policy after Brexit.

British and American authorities in late July 2017 discussed a potential free trade agreement between the countries after Brexit. British manufacturers have faced Brexit's "turning point" long before the talks on the timing of the withdrawal of the WB with the EU (March 2019). The Federation of Engineering Employers, representing 20,000 companies in the United States, noted that the lack of transparency on this issue risks to cause significant damage to the country's economy.

MEDICINE. Outside of trade and banking, the WB within the EU also managed the medical field - the provision of eurospace drugs. New medicines entering the EU market were usually reviewed and evaluated by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in London using the expertise of national regulators (more than 20 percent of the reviews are conducted in the UK). Then officially licensed by the European Commission. In the event of a change of EMA place of dislocation, there will be a significant delay in the registration and delivery of drugs to patients. The EU-27 does not rule out the possibility of leaving the WB in the EU regulatory framework, but no one knows how to do it, because it's not easy to "be in the block and outside the block". One of the options for getting out of the difficult situation with licensing drugs was the inclusion of this scheme in the United States Department of Health. This will allow WB drug regulators to continue to participate in the EMA assessment. In a similar situation, such countries as Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein are currently taking EMA recommendations for new medicines without any restrictions. The US can evaluate the product, and the EMA acknowledges it or, conversely, object. However, in case of objection, the WB will not be able to bypass the European Court. The American version of the drug is interesting, but will Britain agree on such a scheme?

HUMAN RIGHTS. The majority of the population of WB - 60% - wish to remain citizens of the Community. Among them, the largest stratum "for European citizenship" is young Europeans from 18 to 24 years old. At the same time, most Britons are willing to pay for this approximately 400 feet [6]. Negotiations on mutual respect for the rights of EU and WB citizens continue, although after the first round of talks, its participants, in particular Brexit's EU counterpart Michel Barnier, stated that there are "fundamental differences" with the British side in order to guarantee the rights of EU citizens in the UK, since she does not have a clear vision of the Brexit bill.

The constituent part of the negotiations is the issue of the powers of the European Court on the WB. The British have demanded the granting of permits for checking criminal cases of any citizen of the EU, who addresses the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the country with a new status. Such a provision overwhelms the position of the EU, which proposes to British expatriates in Europe to grant only the right to reside in the country where they reside, and not throughout the EU, thus depriving them of their right to freedom of movement, which they enjoy nowadays. Thus, Britons themselves can suffer from Brexit as their employment in other EU countries can be subject to quotas and work permits of the EU Commission as well as to all other citizens. British emigrants will also travel and resettle in the European Union for relevant proposals.

SAFETY EU and GB. Uncertainty about the future flagship of GB participation in the EU caused by Brexit will be added to the known issues. Under current plans, Britain needs to provide more than 1,500 soldiers to the EU combat group, the rapid response military unit, etc., although it will leave the EU in July 2019. The British government has announced its plans for a sanctions bill, which provides for sanctions to be imposed on terrorist groups and hostile regimes after it leaves the EU. Under the current rules, the GB imposes sanctions through EU legislation. The decision of the Irish parliamentary committee, which examines the impact of Brexit on Ireland, is noted as a positive. The committee prepared the relevant report Brexit and the future of Ireland: uniting Ireland and its people in peace and prosperity, outlining 17 recommendations regarding the Republic of Ireland's aspirations for Brexit EU-U.K. Among them - the requirement of special status for Northern Ireland, the need to protect structural funds and the lack of new passport measures. The main decision of the committee concerns the need for peaceful reunification with Britain. According to some estimates, Scotland will also revise its desire to separate itself from GB.

EUROPEANS. IDENTIFICATION. The overwhelming majority of Europeans are optimistic about the future of European integration. According to new sociological surveys, in which over 33,000 people take part in the entire Eurointegration space, 68% recognize themselves as citizens of the EU. Such an estimate is the highest level ever registered by the European Commission. Despite Brexit, 36% of Britons have a positive image of the EU, while 29% say the EU [7] negatively affects them.

The key figure in Brexit's process should be Austria, which takes over the leadership in the European Council in the second half of 2018. The most important task for the Austrian leadership is to secure the rights of 25,000 Austrian citizens now living in the WB. The Austrian authorities are also concerned with financial problems: they expect the WB and the EU to guarantee a solution to the European budget, which will decrease significantly with the release of WB - several billion euros.

Belgium is most concerned about the trade issue, since 80% of its exports are directed to GB. In addition, Belgium is also counting on cooperation in the security field with the WB. Bulgaria, which is in the EU under the patronage of Germany, takes care of the protection of the rights of 60,000 Bulgarian citizens staying in the GB. Denmark is concerned with Brexit's own trade. The Danish side is worried that British companies would not have access to the EU market, as it could lead to British trade in Danish goods at low prices with clear negative consequences for the Danish economy. Estonia is concerned about the fate of the NATO armed forces, in particular the British components on its territory, and the future of Estonian firms in Britain. Estonians will continue to maintain close economic relations with Britain, as there are a significant number of Estonian hardware companies operating in London. Estonia will one way or another strive to leave GB a key role in the security sector of the EU. The Netherlands looks more sober about Brexit's consequences for both the GB itself and the domestic economy: it sees the need to correct the rather unrealistic expectations of WB in connection with Brexit. Let's remind that the Netherlands is one of the leading exporters in the GB among the EU countries, and expects protection of trade bases and rights of its citizens. Greece tries to avoid any debate about the effects of Brexit and to adhere to clear rules of the game by the decisions of the governing bodies of the EU. Among the most important tasks of Dublin (Ireland) is the preservation of peace in Northern Ireland, as well as the prevention of the breakdown of trade relations with GB. Spain sees the only task in the unity of Europe and the continuation of the integration process. The Spaniards are concerned about the issue of preserving the rights of Spanish citizens - about 300 thousand people. In addition, the effects of Brexit can also affect tourists - nowadays almost 18 million Britons visit Spain. In addition, Spanish diplomacy is trying in every way to avoid the Gibraltar case in the Brexit negotiation process. The headache of Cyprus relates to the British military base of Akrotiri, which is the Cypriot territory where the Cypriots live. From the British investments, the Cyprus tourism industry also depends. In addition, the vast majority of students in Cyprus are studying at British universities. Lithuania is worried about preserving the rights of 200,000 Lithuanians living in the World Bank. In addition, Lithuania, like Poland, is also the beneficiary of eurofunds in areas related to economy, education and science. Lithuania is worried by the prospect of staying alone with these programs, as with the implementation of Brexit, the funds concerned may be reduced. Malta will try to use the most beneficial effects from Brexit both as a former British colony and as a branch of British financial firms. Ironically, the GB most actively encouraged Malta to join the EU.

For Germany, Brexit has a symbolic meaning. This is the position demonstrated by the German side after the referendum in the GB and the Netherlands. Germany once again proved its worth and responsibility for the future of European integration. The German position quite rigidly defines the conditions under which Britain will not be able to rely on access to the European market if it does not recognize its basic principles, in particular the demands of the free flow of workers. But on the other hand, as was discussed in the election manifesto of the Christian Democrats of Germany, headed by Angela Merkel, in the interests of Germany after Brexit to maintain intense economic and political ties with Great Britain. In doing so, limit the negative impact of Brexit on people and the economy. The current German policy on WB is defined as "Do not hurry to break the cherry." The German rulers are even convinced that Europe can overcome the migration crisis, but there are problems with Brexit. Brexit is not a tragedy, but it will create a lot of problems.

The Polish government in a number of questions shares the opinion of the British about the need to introduce changes to the supranational policy of the EU, which continues to resist sovereignty. According to the Poles, it is necessary for the EU to conduct deregulation, the introduction of new trading schemes, and the development of a common market. Countries outside the euro area, including Poland, also see the importance of an appropriate European security mechanism that guarantees national security. The next important issue for Poland is the protection of the rights of Poles in the islands. According to estimates, more than 800,000 Poles live in the GB, of which 400,000 are there for less than five years. Consequently, they do not yet have the right to permanent residence. The second important issue is money. Poland is the largest beneficiary of EU countries and is heavily dependent on EU structural funds. After Brexit, the overall EU budget will significantly decrease.

Portugal is concerned about the security and rights of EU citizens. In the negotiations on Brexit, the country emphasizes its pro-European and transatlantic nature. And, according to the Portuguese, the loss of a strong GB in the EU security system will significantly weaken the security system and make it vulnerable. For Romania, the fundamental issue is the equal rights of EU citizens. And, during a divorce, there was no question of differential treatment of citizens from different countries. The first decision the Romanians want is a provision on the equal rights of EU citizens in the islands of Britain. The Slovak Republic is concerned with the rights of its citizens in the British Isles and therefore seeks to ensure that their rights are as high-value as the British themselves. Today, 75,000 Slovaks live and work in the UK. Slovenia: For Ljubljana, it is important for the GB to regulate everything in accordance with the principles and legislation of the EU. Finland, first and foremost, worries about the future of the whole of the EU - is in despair: what will happen to it if ... But France instead of despair tries to keep the EU afloat and to prevent Brexit from spreading to other countries, which could lead to further defeats of the EU. At the same time, France does not forget about practical issues: according to the French side, Britain should return funds to Europeans and pay debts to the EU as a prerequisite for the start of negotiations on trade after Brexit. Among the new EU members is Croatia, which worries about its own security, and hopes that Brexit will not lead to a redefinition of Russia's and Turkey's geographic map of Europe, as GB serves as a key state of European stability and is essential in the defense of civilized Europe. The Czech Republic is in no hurry to conclude, but believes that trade issues should be resolved after all legal approvals. In Sweden, the idea of preserving the unity of the EU and the single EU budget, which are pillars of the reliability of Eurointegration, prevails.

So, for all EU-27 countries, Brexit's fundamental question is to protect the rights of Europeans from which countries they would not be, which corresponds to the most important European values. At the first stage of the discussion on the components of the WB with the EU and the first practical steps in implementing the "divorce under the British scenario", it turned out that the problems to be resolved are multiplied by geometric progression and are multifaceted and complex. To solve them, there are often no easy and unambiguous schemes of familiar mechanisms, since most of them cover several areas of multilateral integration processes that have already deepened the British economy. The UK and the EU are faced with more and more problems, including the complicated process of "removing" the GB from the EU legislation - the entry into force of the draft law on termination of powers. The European Parliament did not have time to consider this issue among others during the sessions, so the real work on the realization of the planned is likely to begin in September 2017. Participants of the third round of debate, as it became known, will discuss the issues of "green Brexit", "Norwegian Brexit" and others.

References

1. JPMorgan Chase (JPMorgan Chase - JPYMorgan Chase is the largest asset holding company in the United States Banking Holding). Belongs to the Great Four of the largest US banks. Conducts activity in the field of investments, financial services, management of private capital, etc. JPMorgan has opened correspondent accounts of many banks in the world, and JPMorgan Chase's total assets at the end of 2013 amounted to 2,515 trillion US dollars.

2. Founded in Hong Kong in 1865 as "The Hongkong and Shanghai Bank" (Bank of Hong Kong and Shanghai) to support trade between Europe and China. Later, the name was changed to "The Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation" (HSBC). In 1991, the headquarters was transferred to London.

3. This is the third largest Japanese lender who chooses a German bank center as a new home base in Europe (similar to Nomura Holdings and Daiwa Securities Group).

banking-jobs-after-brexit-report/

5. 07/14/17 4:45PM CEST. TODAY'S READOUT - The EU and U.K. Brexit negotiating teams will meet in Brussels on Monday for the first full week of divorce talks. - POLITICO - Brexit Files - Politico Europe www.politico.eu /newsletter/brexit-files/

6.Brexit | The Guardian. - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum; UK car industry facing an 'utterly demoralising' Brexit. Published: ... RBS plans move to Amsterdam for post-Brexit EU hub. Published: 2:44 AM.

7.By POLITICO 02 серпня 2017 .8/2/17, 3:28 PM CET. TODAY'S READOUT. - http://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brexit-files/politico-brexit-files-repeal-bill-timetable-drug-diplomacy-merkels-warning/